I use app downloads as a proxy for retail sales somewhat often because some devices must be operated via app. An area where that's very useful is voice assistants, a market dominated by Google and Amazon.
Well, that's changing.
The holiday season is the biggest, by far, for Google Home and Alexa, and in previous years there has been consistent year over year growth. In getting ready to forecast this season, I noticed the trend stopped in 2020. But not across the board.
Downloads of both the Google Home app and Alexa app during the month of December have grown consistently since 2017. The pair grew 42% in 2018 and 20% in 2019. That slowed down in 2020 with a decrease of 11%.
Are we all done telling devices to set timers and turn off our lights?
Not so fast. When we split the data by platform, the App Store vs. Google Play, the trends diverge considerably. Growth on Google Play actually continued just as previous years indicated, 13% to be specific. It's downloads from iPhones that dropped by nearly a half in 2020.
Apple's HomePod mini was released in November of 2020, and at a price point that's much more reasonable than its older sibling, it's not difficult to see why it would capture so much attention from iPhone holders. Between the allure of an Apple device, its sleek look, and the claims of privacy Apple makes, I'm surprised Amazon and Google only saw a 50% decrease.
This year they'd likely learn and be more aggressive in pushing their devices, so I expect early discounts. Regardless, Apple now has a horse in this race, and the impact is very clear.
December saw a curious split: downloads dropped 2% while revenue sat at $1.3B. ChatGPT and TikTok dominated both charts as the mobile industry enters a new maturity phase.
Wall Street bet $2 billion on Polymarket, and downloads surged 1,172% in December. The prediction market banned in 2022 is now where Wall Street looks for signals.