I found an interesting trend where downloads of an app can be used as a proxy to what's going on IRL -- Traveling to Canada.
See, Canada requires that tourists download the ArriveCAN app to record travel information, including documents and covid info.
For many months now, the app has ranked very high in the US, beating popular names like Twitch and Tinder. Yes, that Tinder.
Just how many downloads are we talking about here? So far this year, ArriveCAN saw nearly 3,000,000 new downloads in the US, according to our estimates. But the trend is the more interesting bit.
In January of this year, the app was averaging 2,000 downloads per day, according to our estimates. By March, that average doubled to 4,000. The average grew to 20,000 in April, and in July, single-day downloads peaked at 51,000.
25x growth in just a few months. Nice! More travel. Also nice! Also also, we now have a rough estimate of new travelers to Canada. BY day. Using downloads. Nice(r)!
This is a pretty extreme example of using downloads to proxy real-world things, but it's a pretty decent one in many cases. Consider that when you do your competitive analysis.
December saw a curious split: downloads dropped 2% while revenue sat at $1.3B. ChatGPT and TikTok dominated both charts as the mobile industry enters a new maturity phase.
Wall Street bet $2 billion on Polymarket, and downloads surged 1,172% in December. The prediction market banned in 2022 is now where Wall Street looks for signals.