Spotify's downloads took a hard hit when Apple Music first launched. That resulted in the no-longer-news battle between the two which also led to declining downloads on the App Store.
But it seems the trend changed in 2022. Should Apple be worried?
Let's go with a soft maybe, for now.
According to our download estimates, Spotify's quarterly downloads grew 51% between 2018 and 2022. In more absolute terms, Spotify added 41M downloads in Q1 of 2018 and ended Q4 of 2022 with 62M downloads.
The trend has generally been up-and-to-the-right, but not always.
Downloads dipped a bunch in 2020 and 2021, slowing down growth, and for one whole quarter even dipping below their starting point.
But that changed in 2022. Q1 of 2022 was their second-highest since 2018, with 55M estimated downloads, and Q4 was their highest with 62M downloads.
Spotify added nearly a quarter billion new mobile users in 2022. Nearly a billion new mobile users since 2018.
I'm sure Apple is a little worried.
December saw a curious split: downloads dropped 2% while revenue sat at $1.3B. ChatGPT and TikTok dominated both charts as the mobile industry enters a new maturity phase.
Wall Street bet $2 billion on Polymarket, and downloads surged 1,172% in December. The prediction market banned in 2022 is now where Wall Street looks for signals.