After being the most downloaded app in the App Store and Google Play for several days and breaking download records, Threads, Meta's Twitter (now X) competitor, is now back to normal download numbers.
It dipped right after peaking, but has since stabilized and is now seeing the kind of downloads you'd expect from a new social media app.
Now that the hype is mostly over, how do Threads' downloads compare with X?
According to our estimates, Threads saw 32M new downloads since the beginning of August. The split between the App Store and Google Play was pretty even which usually means the app is being pushed hard across both - and that makes a lot of sense.
Threads came out of its dip after about a week, going from being ranked #32 in the US App Store to #2 within a few hours.
How's X compare? Well...
Twitter's big "rebrand" at the end of July really hurt its discovery which resulted in a big drop in downloads, especially from Google Play. I looked at Twitter's discovery problem back in August.
In terms of downloads, X is getting a little more than half the downloads Twitter saw, and I don't think it has anything to do with Threads or any other social platform. X just doesn't have the brand recognition of Twitter.
Since the beginning of August, X saw 15M new downloads from the App Store and Google Play, according to our estimates. And that includes downloads of Twitter Lite which is available in India. That's roughly half that of Threads for the same period.
Threads is in its infancy so outpacing other social platforms is expected, especially given Meta's user base, so that isn't necessarily a concern for Elon and co, but...
Social platforms have a big lock-in. It's why after more than a decade of using Twitter I can't simply switch to Threads. I know some will, but most won't.
Between X's unrecognized brand and Meta's massive push, this could mean bad news for long-term growth. But X has something Threads doesn't - a mature platform, feature-wise, and a monetary reward system for motivated users. Threads doesn't.
It's hard to tell who will win, but looking at the last couple of decades, one has to win. Who do you think it'll be?
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