It's been almost two months since Disney+ and Hulu stopped accepting new subscriptions on the App Store, joining other apps like Spotify and Netflix in protest of Apple's fees.
Disney+ is consistently in the top 10 highest-earning apps in the world and Hulu is not very far, so this move didn't make too too much sense for me. But... Now that we have enough MRR data I think the reason is a bit clearer - and it isn't just about fees.
Disney+ had its biggest month of revenue in October with $99M of net revenue (after store fees), an increase of 19% compared to January. A positive growth trend that started back in June. Considering both monetize with subscription services, you'd expect that when they stop accepting new subscribers their revenue trend would stop going up and to the right and instead become pretty flat.
But that's not what our estimates are showing.
In November, the first full month of no subscriptions, Disney+'s net revenue dropped by about $16M and Hulu's by 28% - that's double-digit millions in both cases - which means paying users are abandoning Disney at an alarming rate.
I think the reason Disney pulled out of subscriptions in the App Store is because they couldn't figure out how to fight the churn which in turn necessitated getting fresh subscribers which isn't easy. If you're monetizing with subscriptions, make sure to keep your churn in check.
December saw a curious split: downloads dropped 2% while revenue sat at $1.3B. ChatGPT and TikTok dominated both charts as the mobile industry enters a new maturity phase.
Wall Street bet $2 billion on Polymarket, and downloads surged 1,172% in December. The prediction market banned in 2022 is now where Wall Street looks for signals.